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Wandayantolis, M.Si

Abstract

Generally    climatologists    decide    a climatological  normal from a 30 years average of climate   elements.   BMKG   also   use  the  same method   to  generate   climatological   normal   for onset  of  season,   using  the  average   of  each decadal (10  days) rainfall cumulative  in 30 years period.  In  this assessment  climatological  normal for   onset   of   season   is   determined   by   the frequency of 50 mm rainfall for each decadal. The result  is  then  compared   to  the   climatological normal  from  decadal  rainfall  average.  Generally the conclusions  of this  assessment  are: with the frequencies  distribution  the  central  tendency  of climatological   normal  for  the  onset  of   season periodically     are     look     more     clearly     than climatological  normal  by  the  average,  then  the climatological   normal   generated   by   frequency method  gives smaller deviation  of  actual season onset and the dry season period by frequency is longer than using the average method

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