DYMEX Simulation for Estimating Potential Risk of Yield Loss by Yellow Rice Stem Borer Pest in Indramayu
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Abstract
Yellow Rice Stem Borer (YSB) is a major pest in rice plants that have a high enough intensity of attacks in area of rice production centers, especially in West Java. Climate is one of the environmental external factors which influenced the pattern of population dynamics. The purpose of this study is to develop a climate information system through simulation models DYMEX in order to reduce risk of yield loss level in rice production by YSB pest in Indramayu area, West Java. Estimation risk of yield loss can be predicted from the results of YSB pest population dynamics modeling with requires climate parameters input and YSB development under threshold of temperature (To) to describe YSB life cycle from eggs, larvae, pupae to adult (imago) phase. Calibration and validation test of models showed the coefficient of determination (R2) between model predictions results and observations in the study area is well, which can illustrate the development, mortality, transfer of individuals from one stage to the next life also fecundity and YSB reproduction. Climate information that can be provided from a data model output shows the development of imago phase will more quickly reproduce on high temperature conditions and low rainfall intensity so able to trigger the larvae development rate that can damage rice plants at various stages. Thus, the potential rice yield loss can be well predicted through YSB population dynamics modeling
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