ACCURACY OF DAILY WEATHER FORECASTS IN BALI PROVINCE

Article Sidebar

PDF (Indonesian)

Published:

Dec 28, 2016

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.46824/megasains.v7i3.194

Keywords:

verification, accuracy, weather, rain

 

Main Article Content

Made Dwi Jendra
BMKG

Abstract

Verification of weather forecast information products is very necessary, to  determine the level of accuracy or truth of the weather forecast information that has been created as an adequate representation of the weather phenomena that occur. The results of weather forecast verification provide benefits, not only when the forecast is correct, but incorrect forecasts can also be used to understand how to improve the forecast. In this research, the level of accuracy of weather forecast products was obtained from the verification process of daily weather forecasts in Bali with daily rainfall data representing the forecast area for the 2014-2016 data period. The verification method was carried out using the weighting method. The highest accuracy of the Bali Daily Weather Forecast occurred in the SON Period  with a percentage of 89%,  the lowest was in the DJF Period at 57%, the average accuracy of the Bali Daily Weather Forecast for the entire period was 76%. The largest percentage of rain events occurred in the DJF period at 49.43%, dominant sunny/cloudy weather at 90.72% occurred in the SON period.

Article Details

Issue
Vol. 7 No. 3 (2016): Megasains Vol. 7 No. 3 Tahun 2016
Section
Article
Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

The author is willing to retain the copyright and grant journal rights to the first publication with works that are simultaneously under license the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International. It allowing the others to share the work with recognition of the author's work and the initial publication in this journal.

Authors can enter into separate additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of published versions of journal works (for example, posting them to institutional repositories or publishing them in a book), with recognition of the initial publications in this journal.

Authors are permitted and encouraged to send their work online (for example, in their institutional repositories or websites) before and during the submission process because it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as previous and larger citations of published works.