Simulasi Proyeksi Produksi Padi Tahun 2030-2062 Dibandingkan Produksi Padi Tahun 1980-2012 Menggunakan Model AquaCrop di Banyuwangi Jawa Timur

Abstract

Using daily climatic data period 1980- 2012 (33 years) of the Meteorological Station Banyuwangi, East Java, has developed the projected maximum temperature, minimum temperature  and  potential  evapotranspiration (ETo) and rainfall over the next 50 years (2030- 2062)  is  based  on  a  linear  trend  updates  on historical  period.   Using  historical  climate  data (1980-2012)  and  projected  climate  data  (2030- 2062),   carried   out   rice  production   simulations using AquaCrop model. Night time temperatures (minimum   temperature)   increased   at   a   rate greater than the daytime temperature (maximum temperature). Projected maximum temperature in Banyuwangi in 2030-2062 in the range of 31.6 ° C - 32.2 ° C and the minimum temperature in the range of 24.8 ° C - 26.0 ° C. Evapotranspiration decreased 0.3 mm / day from 1497 mm / year in 1980 to 1390 mm / year in 2030 and 1320 mm / year  in 2062. Assuming an increase in extreme rainfall by 30%, rainfall at the peak of the rainy season increases and precipitation at the peak of the  dry  season  is  reduced.  Rice  production  in 2030-2062 is projected to increase every month throughout the year about 1 ton except when planting in April. Increased rainfall in the future, to extend   the   rice-planting   season   which   was originally 9 months a year to 11 months