Analysis of Annual Rainfall Projection Using RCP4.5 Scenario In West Nusa Tenggara Province
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Published: Aug 8, 2022 |
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DOI: |
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Keywords: precipitation, projection, climate, scenario, RCP4.5 |
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Abstract
Climate is a factor that affects many sectors and human life, one of which is rainfall. Rainfall projections help to predict conditions and potential water availability in the future. This study aims to analyze the average annual rainfall in 3 periods, namely the baseline period (2006-2016), the short-term (2021-2030), and the medium-term (2031-2040). The data used is rainfall observation data at 44 collaborative rain points, as well as rainfall model data for the RCP4.5 scenario using 44 cooperative rain points in West Nusa Tenggara. The method used in this study is the interpolation method, namely Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW). The results showed that there was an increase in the average annual rainfall from the baseline period (2006-2016) to the forecast period (2021-2030) in West Nusa Tenggara. Meanwhile, from the forecast period (2021-2030) to the forecast period (2031-2040), there was no significant change in rainfall.
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