DAMPAK PERUBAHAN IKLIM TERHADAP KEKERINGAN METEOROLOGIS DAN KESESUAIAN AGROKLIMAT JAGUNG DI PROVINSI NUSA TENGGARA BARAT

Abstract

Climate change was predicted will afect on drougth and food crops suitability including mays as one of priority commodities in West Nusa Tenggara  (NTB). However study on this matter has not been conducted previously. This paper describes the results of the study on Climate change impact on meteorological drougth and mays agroclimate suitability in West Nusa Tenggara. The study carried out since July 2014 to January 2015; using down scalling data from  regional  Conformal  Cubic  Atmospheric  Model  (CCAM_CSIRO)  with  14  square kilometer resolution. This data was utilised to calculate the areas affected by meteorological drugth using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) method and mays agroclimate suitability in the future. The results of the study indicate that there is variation in rainfal as well as temperature in two different periodes. Rainfall decrease about     30% - 40% in mid future (2040-2069)   and about 10% - 20% in the future (2070-2099). Unlikely, temperature is predicted to increase about   1,1°C - 1,6°C in mid future and  2°C - 3,2°C  in the future. This condition is predicted will affect the area which experience meteorological draugth in the mid future, wher about  22% -  29,4% become very drauth meanwhile very wet area  decrease about -17,39%, therefore corn agroclimate suitability is also predicted wil dereasing significantly.  Mays agroclimate suitability level S1 decrease 5,3%; S3 decrease 10,5%; and N (not suitable) decrease about 54,7%. Contraditory, suitability level S2   increasing significantly about 74,8% in the mid future and   in the future relatif to baseline data 1971- 2000