ANALISIS VARIABILITAS DAN PERUBAHAN IKLIM TERHADAP KESESUAIAN AGROKLIMAT KEDELAI DI PROVINSI NUSA TENGGARA BARAT

Abstract

West Nusa Tenggara (NTB) established by the government as one of the national soybean production  centers  to  pursue  self-sufficiency  target  of  producing  one  million  tons  of soybeans per year. Soybean demand nationally and locally increase from year to year. Beside (El Nino / La nina), climate change will lead to increased frequency of weather / climate extremes, droughts, extreme rainfall. Climate change in West Nusa Tenggara will certainly have an impact on agro-climatic suitability of soybean area. By utilizing the regional climate model data Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) resolution of 14 km of the Climate Change Adaptation Project Collaboration UNRAM-CSIRO, the data used to create the climate projections  then used to classify of soybean agro-climatic suitability based FAO standard. The decline of  annual rainfall average in future periods and the increase in the temperature average of 20 to 30 ºC baseline period to 23-32 ºC in future. Analysis of agro- climatic suitability class for soybean crops in NTB projected to significant changes with less extensive suitability class S1 (Very Suitable) decrease by 3.0%, the class of S3 (Marginal Suitable) decrease 12.5% and the class N (Not Suitable) decrcrease 9.2 nevertheless occur the increase in class of S2 (Suitable) of 24.7% both in (2040-2069) and (2070-2099) relative to the baseline period (1981-2010).