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Abstract

The tropical cyclone season in the Indian Ocean south of Indonesia every year takes place from November to April. The cyclone season in 2021/2022 is predicted to experience an above normal, with the number of tropical cyclones predicted to grow as many as 15 systems. Meanwhile, based on the climatological average, there will be 10 tropical cyclones that will develop in each tropical cyclone season. However, during the period from November 2021 to April 2022, only 8 tropical cyclones were developed in this basin, with 1 of them born within the area of responsibility of TCWC Jakarta. With a statistical method approach and descriptive analysis of tropical cyclone climatological data, predictions of the outlook for the tropical cyclone season in 2021/2022, and cyclogenesis data from TCWC Jakarta, it can be concluded that the tropical cyclone season in 2021/2022 tends to be below normal by 65% to 80 %.

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